US PC market set for modest 2% growth in 2025 amid tariff concerns

Canalys, now part of Omdia, data shows PC shipments (excluding tablets) to the United States grew 6% year on year to 17.7 million units in Q4 2024, driven by strong performance in the commercial segment. Looking ahead, the US PC market is expected to perform modestly well but faces challenges from volatile trade policies that will likely result in higher prices for consumers and businesses. Total PC shipments to the US are expected to fall just shy of 2% growth in both 2025 and 2026 with volumes hovering between 70 to 72 million units each year.

The commercial segment was the strongest-performing segment in the second half of 2024, driven heavily by Windows 10 end-of-service demand. As Microsoft increases its efforts to boost awareness around the October 2025 deadline, businesses are stepping up investments in PC fleet refreshes. This trend is set to continue throughout this year and even into 2026, given the scale of older Windows 10 devices that remain present in the installed base.

While the US PC market will continue to be bolstered by the Windows refresh, there are new headwinds in the form of tariffs and associated inflation. “President Trump’s ongoing trade war with Canada, Mexico and China has had swift negative repercussions for the stock market and pushed the US GDP growth forecast for Q1 2025 into negative territory,” said Canalys Analyst Greg Davis. “In addition to the direct impact of tariffs, the stop-start nature of announcements and delays have cast uncertainty around pricing for consumer electronics this year. The tariffs have prompted mitigating actions across the PC industry, with vendors and channel partners engaging in some recent stockpiling of devices.” A Canalys poll of US channel partners revealed that 50% held five weeks or more of PC inventory in January 2025, up from 29% in November 2024.

“The new policies have also been a catalyst for positive developments, with TSMC and Apple recently announcing major manufacturing investments in the US,” added Davis. “Combined, the two companies announced intentions to invest US$665 billion in production facilities, R&D, training and more. However, it will be some time before the benefits from these investments materialize.”

For more information, please contact:

Greg Davis: greg_davis@canalys.com

About PC Analysis

Canalys’ PC Analysis service provides quarterly updated shipment data to help with accurate market sizing, competitive analysis and identifying growth opportunities in the market. Canalys PC shipment data is granular, guided by a strict methodology, and is broken down by market, vendor and channel, as well as additional splits, such as GPU, CPU, storage and memory. In addition, Canalys also publishes quarterly forecasts to help better understand the future trajectory and changing landscape of the PC industry.

About Canalys

Canalys, now part of Omdia, is a leading global technology market analyst firm with a distinct channel focus. We strive to guide clients on the future of the technology industry and to think beyond the business models of the past. We’ve delivered market analysis and custom solutions to technology vendors worldwide for over 25 years. Our research covers emerging, enterprise, mobile and smart technologies. Understanding channels is at the heart of everything we do. Our insightful reports, data and forecasts inform our clients’ strategies, while the Canalys Forums and Candefero online community give the channel feedback opportunities. We stake our reputation on the quality of our data, our innovative use of technology and our high level of customer service.

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